Experian UK Business Credit Trends Index: Q4 2024

An overview of the macroeconomic outlook and SME credit trends

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Resilience prevails amid fresh uncertainty

2024 has proven just how resilient the UK economy is, as consumer and business lending held strong.

The final quarter of the year began with wind in its sails. But caution crept in once again as SMEs adjusted to October’s Budget and re-election of President Trump, which could see potential tariffs introduced on goods exported to the US.

As change is on the horizon, we take a look at how business confidence is changing, the impact on credit demand, and the total value of new lending.

Download the full report now >

In this report, we cover:

Inside thumbnail of Credit Trends report

SME credit trends to watch
We look at demand and supply, the role of alternative lenders, and credit performance highlights.
Macroeconomic outlook
How economic trends are shaping SME resilience.
SME demands
How demand for credit is reflected into lending and SME delinquency rates.

A sneak peek into...

Experian UK Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise (SME) Credit Trends Index

John Griffiths, Market Engagement Director, Experian

Foreword

Resilience prevails amid fresh uncertainty

Individuals were relieved that mass tax increases did not materialise, as Labour honoured its promise not to raise income tax, employee National Insurance or VAT. However, businesses were hit harder, with hikes in employer National Insurance contributions (and a lower threshold for payment) and above-inflation rises to the National Minimum and Living Wages.

On a more positive note, the Budget included promising national investment plans as Chancellor Rachel Reeves set out her strategies to stimulate long-term economic growth. Planned investments for the digital economy, transport, housing, infrastructure and Net Zero could make billions available to SMEs across sectors such as construction, energy and tech.

For SMEs, the Budget presented fresh challenges following a difficult period of high inflation and lower demand. Naturally, taxation was the second-most cited concern among businesses in Q4, behind falling demand. That poses a significant dilemma for SMEs: if prices are raised to offset higher employer burdens, will that further reduce consumer demand?