Experian UK Business Credit Trends Index: Q3 2024

An overview of the macroeconomic outlook and SME credit trends

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A brighter outlook across the board

As inflation held steady around the government’s 2% target in 2024 Q3, businesses have dared to feel a touch more confident.

As we enter the final quarter of the year, GDP growth for 2024 is forecast to be 0.9% – representing a higher forecast than earlier in the year, and a stronger result than 2023’s 0.3% gain. Though the growth is modest, it’s a clear sign that the economy has returned to surer footing.

Read our SME Credit Trends Index to understand the market changes and how they impact the credit lending landscape in the UK.

Download the full report now >

In this report, we cover:

Inside pages of Credit Trends Index Report

SME credit trends to watch
We look at demand and supply, the role of alternative lenders, and credit performance highlights.
Macroeconomic outlook
How economic trends are shaping SME resilience.
SME demands
How demand for credit is reflected into lending and SME delinquency rates.

A sneak peek into...

Experian UK Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise (SME) Credit Trends Index

John Griffiths, Market Engagement Director, Experian

Foreword

GDP flatlined in July but recovered to grow by 0.2% in August.

With inflation under control, it’s likely the Bank of England will feel confident enough to announce at least one base rate cut before the end of 2024. It may even decide on successive cuts in November and December.

On a less positive note, consumer confidence fell across the quarter. This could be attributed to concerns over tax rises, which did not materialise for employees in the Budget. Pay continued to increase in real terms, including above-inflation rises for the public sector and in minimum wage, which could also encourage consumers to spend.

Even with the economic turbulence of 2022/23 firmly in the past, the economy remains finely balanced. Lenders should capitalise on increasing demand for credit while remaining cautious and curious about what’s motivating borrowers.